Stopping the Dragon

Following last week’s contention that while China now thinks it is time to pounce on its prey, like what a Komodo dragon does when it hunts for a meal, I wish to add that the strategies by which China is trying to establish regional hegemony are still evolving.

Gone was reformist leader Deng Xiaoping’s advice to “hide your strength, bide your time.” Now is the time to flex pure muscle.

The flagship Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) aims to unify under China’s wand international and domestic markets, supported by infrastructure investment, education, construction materials, railway and highway, automobile, real estate, power grid, and iron and steel, according to the Beijing Commercial Press.

It requires a huge amount of investment, with the whole package of infrastructure networks alone, linking by land and sea around 60 countries in Asia, Europe, Oceania and East Africa, estimated to cost a whopping US$4–8 trillion. For example (according to Time.com), the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor—connecting China’s westernmost city of Kashgar to Pakistan’s port city of Gwadar, some 2,000 miles away—will alone cost $46 billion. (By comparison, the U.S. has spent $33 billion in Pakistan since 2002, two-thirds on security.)

But like any investment, risks have to be assumed. Whether China can handle security threats in those countries as efficiently as the US does with its own interests abroad under more or less similar conditions is something that still needs to be fully understood by allies. The private bankers, including tycoons from neighboring countries with Chinese blood, who are putting in dollars via the conduit Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank (AIIB), are probably driven more by faith and loyalty to their homeland than by rigor of financial analysis.

Much as it wants to project the oriental brand of friendship (which tries to impose nothing, unlike the west which simply bombs belligerent countries), therefore, the need to flex military muscle has become of paramount importance. Already, a military base is reported to be on the rise in Cambodia—wobbly under the weight of Chinese debt—although this violates that country’s constitution. China has constructed military facilities in South China Sea, portions of which encroach on other countries’ territory, notably that of the Philippines and Vietnam. Farther afield, Pakistan, Sri Lanka and Vanautu—countries that are likewise heavily indebted to China, are being groomed as hosts of its expansionist naval military forces.

While all the intimidating threats and bullying are going on, one must understand that China is above all driven by profits, the same end that motivates the US to point the barrel of a gun at other countries that dare get in the way of the robber, ironically in the name of peace and democracy. If it was the National Basketball Association, both countries have been seeded to face in the finals, season in season out. The US knows it has ceased to become favorites, unlike in past decades. They are up against one that is equally wealthy and sophisticated. And clever. China, for example, dodges Trump’s tariffs by sending exports from countries that so far are immune from the trade flu. In the real world of armed conflict, one knows that it cannot win over the other.

Spectators are justified in vacillating about picking a side, let alone gamble their hard-earned money on who gets to establish a dynasty. Even the Philippines with its public display of affection towards China, may do well by keeping half of its other foot out of the door.

The basic strategy in keeping friends is similar to that of the rice trader. Farmers sell their palay to the trader instead of the NFA even at lower prices because all they have can barely cover for payment of long past-due loans.

China’s imperialist dreams are dependent on how long it is able to keep its friends. It is not only about how well it uses its money to fatten regional trade and make everybody happy, so to speak, but also how to influence the rise of political and military leaders who speak its language. It has been successful in several countries, notably Cambodia and the Philippines.

For those who plot to stop the dragon, hints can be found from the shifting tides of friendship. China cannot build its BRI, dominate foreign trade, and plant military facilities abroad, unless its neighboring sovereign states are convinced their future lies in a China-led hegemony. The key is to talk the voters of these countries out of the dragon lock.

This is not easy, considering how well partisans today work on all fronts, such as social media and big data manipulation. But popular issues, such as the one driving the Hongkong protests, can undo even the best-drawn strategies. Political leaders who are not bound by Chinese largesse are more likely, under the present circumstances, to look around for some other ways that better serve their respective constituencies, without necessarily being pro-Chinese or pro-American.     

More on these “plotty thoughts” next week.  

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